Sunday, January 23, 2011

NFC Championship Preview

DISCLAIMER: I am a huge Bears fan, and I hate the Packers.

These teams have played 181 games against each other since 1921; the Bears lead the series 92–83–6. This game is bigger than all of them. Let's stick to more recent history though.

Week 3 at Chicago - Bears Win 20-17 - Biggest difference makers: Packers penalties, Hester punt return TD

Week 17 at Green Bay - Packers Win 10-3 - Biggest difference makers: Cutler 2 INT 0 TD, 6 sacks

The first game saw the Packers commit countless penalties to gift-wrap the game for the Bears, yet somehow manage to keep the score close. The second game saw bad Cutler (although not as bad as last year), but the Bears D let them keep it close. So I think it's pretty obvious that we can expect this to be a close game. The week 17 game had the Packers playing to make the playoffs, and while the Packers have been in must-win mode for the past 5 weeks no one has shut down Aaron Rodgers like the Bears. Aaron Rodgers has lifted himself to elite status this year, right behind Brady and Manning with Brees and Rivers. It seems a bit presumptuous to assume that the bears can stop him, but with the Packer's lack of a running game and the Bears propensity for turnovers, the Bears only need to slow him down. When the Bears have the ball we will be watching two of the most creative coordinators in the game. Mike Martz vs. Dom Capers is the most important matchup of the game. If the Bears offense can move the ball with regularity, they will likely be on their way to Dallas.

Key Players

Bears: Offensive Line, They have been improving all season and have veterans Garza and Kreutz on the interior, but it has obviously been the Bears' weakest unit. With all the exotic blitz packages that Dom Capers likes to use, protection is key for the Bears' offense.

Packers: Charles Woodson, He is last year's Defensive Player of the Year and his play this year hasn't been too far off. Speed, strength, awareness, he has it all. Woodson will blitz from the nickelback position to use his speed around the tackles, drop into coverage and lock down a receiver, or tackle the ball carrier and try to strip the ball. There is nothing that he can't do and every time his name shows up in the stats the Bears are one step further from winning.

In the end, I think the Bears have gotten all the breaks this year, and this will be icing on the cake. The chance to knock down the media darling Packers and make it to the Super Bowl was something that most fans wouldn't have dreamed to be possible at the beginning of the season, but here we are. This is going to be an all-time great game, I see the Bears having either a defensive or special teams touchdown as the difference maker. 24-17 Bears.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

AFC Championship Preview


    This is the battle of the two all weather teams. Pound the rock and play great defense. But, this match-up is a whole lot more than that. The Jets are on a roll with two consecutive wins over dangerous aerial attacks, and the Steelers find a way to squeeze one out over the Ravens in the second half. What we learned so far is that the Jets have been mixing up a lot of coverages and playing a lot of zone. Instead of Rex Ryan’s philosophy of 'blitz the entire bench', he has played the percentages and played pass first on defense against teams who love to pass. He’s relied on a three to four man rush on most occasions and let the cover guys do their jobs. The Steelers got lucky because they couldn’t pass protect all first half. What changed the second half were a couple huge plays by Big Ben and a couple miscues by the Ravens, and the ability to stop Terrell Suggs from killing Roethlisberger. This is my opinion on what both teams should do:
  Jets Game plan: On defense continue to mix up between man and zone. I think zone blitzing would be a good option. I just don’t trust Pittsburgh’s O-line in passing situations. They’ve always had issues with it. On offense, simple, move the chains. Continue to mix it up, but they cannot be too conservative like they have been in the past. Get into 3rd and short situations and let Sanchez work the play action.
  Steelers Game plan: On defense they aren’t going to change so what’s the point of talking about it. Dick Labeau is going to dial up blitzed left and right like he always does. On offense they must protect Ben enough for those deep throws he loves so much. Ben must be patient, read the coverage and take what is given to him. He’s going to have to make a couple big plays for them to win on Sunday.
     In the end I believe the Jets win this one. They’ll frustrate Ben like he’s used to with Rex’s defensive schemes. Sanchez will make simple plays in the middle of the field on key drives to keep them on top.
Key Players:        Jets – Jerricho Cotchery  (Sanchez needs to attack Linebackers and slot DB’s)
                           Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger (needs to make good reads w/out turnovers)